By Judith Gayle | Political Waves
“I’m baaaack!” —Hillary Clinton, with a grin
Even as the echoes of the Uranus/Pluto energies begin to fade, the urge to act remains strong, but how, and to what end, rather like a pin-ball in play, bouncing, bouncing, making a clatter but not yet at rest. It’s probably best not to be too rash in considering our options.
This week a 22-year old Illinois man came to Washington for the Cherry Blossom Festival, taped a protest note that read “Tax the one percent” to his hand and shot himself dead on Capital grounds. A Florida mailman gathered up individual letters to each of Washington’s congress critters protesting corruption, and ignoring restricted airspace, flew his little one-man gyrocopter onto the Capital lawn. He described his action as civil disobedience “in pursuit of honest government that represents the people.” (He was white, there were cameras. We didn’t shoot him.)
On the Hill, approval of Loretta Lynch, candidate for Eric Holder’s replacement as U.S. Attorney General, has been stalled for 161 days. The White House is miffed and supporters have begun a hunger strike (to which I’d add they obviously underestimate the concern of those they seek to sway). Mitch McConnell has told the Dems that Lynch’s vote will be held up until the human trafficking bill — tabled by Dems due to a clause that refuses to allow funding to trafficking victims seeking abortion services — is approved. Yet another hostage situation in the halls of Congress, one that Obama hotly scolded Pubs about in his press conference with the Italian president on Friday.
Another big piece of legislation up in the air is the fast-track on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, passed through committee and fashioned into a bill, splitting the Democrats between those who are business-friendly and those who are progressive. Elizabeth Warren — who is NOT going to run for president, so the progressives should stop wasting energy and resources trying to woo her, and get on with business — and Bernie Sanders are championing the defeat of any fast-track legislation, while demanding a transparent look at all that’s being arranged behind the scenes.
Obama spoke to that question at the press conference as well, referencing China and our need to keep the ‘level playing field’ for America, but that means for American corporations, not the American public. Obama said, essentially, “Trust me, you know I’ve worked for the people since you elected me and I will continue to protect you.” But he is an establishment president, boxed into a fiscal reality that has been solidified over the last forty years, aided by — sad to say — Democratic President Bill Clinton with his nod to NAFTA, which resulted in millions of jobs disappearing overseas and increased American corporate plunder. The TPP appears to be even worse — or better, I guess, if you are a corporate CEO who is charged by law to put profit first and all else aside.
The TPP is too big to ignore and too important to dismiss because we’re ‘too busy.’ This is a battle finally begun (five-years awaited, negotiated in secrecy) and we’ll hear more about it, which is a very good thing since — face it — too many Americans have a limited knowledge of politics, even after having become aware that some knowledge of how these things work is critical to a less dangerous future. Time to pay attention.
But I need a break, so this week, just for ducks, let’s skip the hard stuff of plutocracy, policy and thwarted legislation, and take a look at the stable of presidential hopefuls who have already begun the tedious race for big money and popularity, pre-election and largely, pre-interest from the public. I’m a tad wary with this topic. I do NOT want to get stuck in this non-sense (two words) for the next 18 or so months because, essentially, it means very little. Paul Krugman made that point in an Alternet piece that points out the vast differences between the party philosophies, now that the right has become unyieldingly big business and anti-government, while lefty populism continues to grow in passion and commitment.
Yes, Hillary’s back as we knew she would be, just as we knew the glaciers would melt and Obama would be soundly ignored for all eight years. But this will not be a race between personalities, although they’re diverse enough on the right to fill the obligatory (you guessed it) clown car, bozo noses flashing in the sun and big shoes flopping.
No, 2016 will be a race about political policy, despite the sex of the lefty frontrunner. It would be a fine thing if we could include a third party, like the Green (with its stellar exploratory candidate, Dr. Jill Stein, among others), but this continues to be a fledgling movement, garnering less than one percent of the presidential vote. We’re stuck with the two we know best, warts and all (and the cure would come with a healthy dose of campaign finance reform for starters, then an inoculation of populist oversight and effective regulation, along with a commitment to accountability).
Traditionally, we like our presidential nominees to pass muster in central casting — at least the 20th century version — which is one of the reasons St. Ronnie the Reagan remains perpetually beloved, even as his tenure tore at the fabric of populist democracy established by FDR and gave permission for the racism, elitism and corporatism we see surrounding us today. We don’t want our candidates to be too young, too old, too fat or too thin, too radical or too wimpy, and God help them if they’re not white or male.
Enter the 2016 wannabes: a compendium of all of that and more. So early in the dance it’s hard to get any traction on the silliness between now and then, but for the record, here’s where we are today.
Of those who have formally announced, Ted Cruz continues to use all his dog-whistles to call in the faithful, and it will be difficult to shake their confidence in him, since no one else has his religious bona fides (except perhaps Huckabee, who USA Today says will announce on Friday night). For the majority of Republicans, Ted is a truly wonderful human being but much too radical to be elected president. This assumes ANY Republican is electable as president, given their relationships with the Latino, black, female and younger demographics.
Rand Paul announced last week with his father carefully hidden in the back row among his supporters, not to steal Rand’s thunder, I would assume. His rambling speech was less than artful, and now he’s proven himself touchy, rude and sexist in early exchanges with women reporters, although he’s acknowledged his temper and pleads that he’s equally rude to man and woman alike. Rushing to his defense (no pun), shock-jock Limbaugh called Rand’s barking at Savannah Guthrie just an example of the candidate standing up for himself, inadvertently giving the Dems something to trounce him about. Not that they need an excuse, given Rand’s inconsistencies. The Tea Party likes this current streak of Libertarianism, which fits nicely into the Federalist position of states rights and “Don’t Tread On Me” civil liberties, but they’ll never ever EVER go for isolationism. The military industrial complex is one entire leg of fiscal stability in the U.S. at this point. Nobody on the right is interested in chopping off that leg.
Marco Rubio has announced, making himself out to be the hope for tomorrow. This line from his speech, “Yesterday is over, and we are never going back,” an overt hit at Hillary’s age, is belied by the tired ideas that keep his proposed policies mired in the past. Rubio is attractive and charismatic, and will perhaps find stronger purchase in the future, but right now he’s not going too far, too fast. He is considered unproven in a party that values its pecking order, and while touted as a Republican man of color (he’s Cuban), it’s best to remember in a party mostly supported by old white people, he’s a MAN OF COLOR.
While he has yet to commit, ditto that for Indian-American Louisiana governor, Bobby Jindal, whose approval numbers are so slim at home (around 24 percent) he’s hinted at asking Duck Dynasty’s deeply and disturbingly fundamentalist patriarch, Phil Robertson, to join him as vice presidential candidate. Once promoted as the face of young Republicanism, Jindal keeps shifting farther right, which is fine for the base but not for party prospects. Well to remember that while in college, he practiced exorcism on his roommates as a tenet of his faith: good with Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin, but pretty much a deal-breaker with mainstream America.
Newly verbal this week, Chris Christi is smug and belligerent, bigger than life (also no pun) and the kind of take-no-prisoners politician that ran Tammany Hall back in the early days of this country. He doesn’t take no for an answer and insults those who don’t agree with him. Yet to announce his candidacy, he’s declared that if he does, he will beat Hillary, will not tolerate marijuana use in those states that have legislated for it and will make major changes to Social Security. Big talk from a man whose numbers are tanking at home and whom the religious-right wouldn’t touch on a bet.
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker led the early pack of hopefuls, his ego helping him rise to the top like a hot air balloon. Walker has made a name for himself by killing off unions, culminating in a recent vote that rendered his state “right to work” (which means the right not to pay union dues and then wonder too late what happened to all your worker protections). A recent survey indicates that his stronghold demographic — political independents — now disapprove his job at home by a 24-point margin, and he’s lost a big chunk of party support since October. Like Rick Perry, his answers to political questions were not up to snuff. I think of Walker as someone like George W., not the sharpest tool in the shed but canny and well connected. That is likely not enough to get the nod this time around.
Rick Perry, enhanced by thick-rimmed dweeb glasses to make him seem less dim, is in New Hampshire with the other wannabes this weekend to schmooze the electorate. Rick called Hillary a “pig in a poke,” linking him as ideological kin to the Pub county supervisor in Milwaukee, whose mouth had already made her a public figure for nicknaming Hillary “Ovary.” Brace yourself for much much more of this, since Clinton IS the threat they’re facing, and sexism is the easiest brass ring to grab as the calliope plays.
Hearken back with me now to those 2012 news bulletins regarding Hillary’s pant suits. Resolve to push past this inanity, not wallow in it. Promise to examine, support or critique her policies against a progressive template. I suspect some on the right have evolved enough to keep their yaps shut even if they’re thinking sexist thoughts, but certainly not all. Some of the theatrics are fun, if not taken to heart. Pushing aside the pig and ovary comments, this week her stop at Chipotle for lunch was portrayed by FOX News as an overt nod to the Hispanic vote. Perhaps this week she’ll pick up Chinese takeout and put everyone into tailspin.
So far, Hillary has done a pretty good job of embracing progressive concerns, although some of it seems a direct turnabout, as Dem. Gov. Martin O’Malley, as yet undeclared, has accused. She may be good on environmental issues now, but in her last gig as Secretary of State, she acted as an encouraging voice for international fracking. She has talked about amending the Constitution to rid us of Citizens United, but she’s also projected her campaign to cost some 2.5 BILLION (with a B!) dollars, so I suppose one would have to follow the other, eh?
She’s depending on smaller donors this time around, and mimicking Obama’s use of social media, but there seems little doubt she’s already lined up her billionaires. The charity that she and her husband and daughter run hasn’t given up on foreign contributions as yet, and likely won’t. They will have to establish an unscalable wall between money for the poor and any hint of pay-for-play. And of course, there’s Big Dog Bill. What to do with Bill.
Since she is likely the Dem candidate, and the first woman president, Hillary could benefit from a liberal tune up. If she’s going to turn out those voters who could lift her boat in 2016, she needs to get a sense of how passionately they want progressive change. Warren isn’t running, but it’s apparent that Bernie Sanders is, and that will put the right questions on the floor in debate. Rhode Island’s Lincoln Chaffee, a popular Independent ex-governor, along with O’Malley from Maryland, seems anxious to climb on board. Add hawkish Jim Webb from Virginia, and we still don’t know about Joe Biden. That’s a quorum, then, and a platform for some of the more important issues to get a public airing.
Although there are no sure bets on the right, and Jeb is considered far and away too moderate to suit primary voters, it seems reasonable that he will find his way to the nomination. Of the proposed candidates, Jeb is the most house-broken politician. However, his embrace of immigration reform is a black spot on his resume, and he has a lot of private baggage, including fishy business deals over the years, a Hispanic family, and his older brother, once the Decider, now a painter. Despite those hiccups, Jeb is conservative to the bone, although a party set to ‘primary’ old faithful John McCain for not supporting a right-wing agenda may not appreciate that. I loathe the idea of a Clinton/Bush dynasty campaign, but there seems no avoidance, given the dearth of likely challengers. Frankly, I don’t think it’s much of a contest, and much less about personalities than policy and money.
The choice, I believe, will be stark enough that there will be little doubt about what’s being voted for. WHO turns out to vote will again be the issue, I think. The country is by and large more liberal than conservative, and it has looked on the Pubs’ obstruction with a good deal of trepidation. Although the party hits the right cultural notes, many of their own aged and aging party members may have trouble accepting attempts to change Medicare, Social Security, and even that highly effective Democratic project known as Obamacare.
Doug Sosnik, adviser to Big Bill Clinton back in the day, wrote a Politico article titled “Groucho Marx’s Republican Party: Why the GOP is in more trouble than you think.” In it, Sosnik elaborates on this Groucho quote: “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.”
Right now, the GOP’s biggest problem is that the country isn’t looking for the kind of change that their party is offering. The Tea Party-inspired insurgent wing of the GOP is so consumed with completing its political takeover that it’s either unable or unwilling to do what it takes to appeal to the group of voters Republicans need to take back the White House.
All the talk of Clinton’s inevitability in 2008 has soured the pundits on using that word, but I will. Unless something monumental happens, Hillary is inevitable as our first woman president. With many months to go, we would do well to push her as far to the left as possible, knowing that she will default back to moderate when the time is right.
So this is that moment when the left can get traction on how it expects its leadership to behave. This is that period when the political expectation is larger than mere rhetoric. The whole nation will be discussing the issues we care the most about. And seriously, dearhearts? That IS change we can believe in. We’ve come a long way, baby, from the dark, if hopeful days of 2008, and that’s a very good thing.